SHFE tin fluctuates at highs under pressure, with supply bottlenecks and macro factors intensifying the tug-of-war [SMM tin midday review]

At the midday session on August 7, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 267,430 yuan/mt, up approximately 0.21% from the previous day's settlement price. The intraday fluctuation range narrowed to 266,550-268,700 yuan/mt, with market sentiment remaining cautious. Meanwhile, the LME tin 3-month contract was quoted at $33,345/mt during the Asian session, up $115 from the previous day, reaching an intraday high of $33,430, but with significant resistance above.

Macro expectations have repeatedly disrupted market rhythms. The probability of a US Fed interest rate cut in September has risen to 94%, and the US dollar index has pulled back to around 98.2, theoretically providing support for metal prices. However, the cooling of the US ISM Services PMI in July and the weakening of non-farm payrolls have sparked market concerns about "stagflation," causing risk-averse funds to remain on the sidelines amid high tin prices. Domestic policy sentiment has been mediocre, with A-share trading volume shrinking to 1.76 trillion yuan, temporarily halting the upward trend in risk appetite and further suppressing commodity speculation sentiment.

In the short term, SHFE tin is expected to maintain sideways movement within the range of 265,000-270,000 yuan/mt. The upside pressure stems from weak realities: domestic inventory buildup and tariff impacts are suppressing upward momentum. The downside support, however, originates from strong expectations: unresolved ore shortages and the potential squeeze risk from low LME inventory. Strategically, it is recommended to remain on the sidelines. If Myanmar's production resumptions accelerate or semiconductor tariff impacts become more pronounced, short positions can be established at higher levels. If expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut strengthen and LME inventory declines further, light long positions can be tested.